Knight Of The Mind

I'll do my best to present a philosophical and generally conservative look at current events and life, the universe and everything. Readers are invited to take all that's posted herein with a grain of salt. or if they prefer, a grain of salt, a slice of lime and a shot of tequila.

Location: Alexandria, Virginia, United States

Greetings and welcome. My name is Steve, I'm 35 years old and I work for the US Army as an Operations Research Analyst. Hence my blog title Knight Of The Mind.

Monday, November 15, 2004

Premature Speculation - GOP Edition

Election 2004 went as well as the GOP could have hoped for. GWB won reelection, the GOP gained 4 Senators and they took down a small number of newly gerrymandered Congressional Districts. Should GOP darkhorse Dino Rossi take Washington State's Governor's Race, the GOP will have even gained a governorship in a state where this was no likely probability.

Election 2006 promises to be dull, but generally pleasant for GOP party leaders. Barring a catastophic two years for President Bush, the Senate map will feature 18 Democrat incumbants to 15 Republicans. There is also no Census until 2010. Thus, the House should thus stay status quo antibellum.

This makes Election 2008 the next major battleground election. The Senate math will probably turn pro-Democrat. The House will be harder for the GOP to hang on to as a result of the Presidential Election heading both party's tickets. Thus 2008 will involve trepidation for the Post-GWB Republican Party.

This begs the question of who the GOP is likely to nominate in defence of President Bush and Newt Gingrich's gains. There are several possible choices for the GOP nomination. Here are some possibilities.

Highly Likely -

  • John McCain - Senator McCain rebuffed John Kerry's Veep Offer and went heavily for George Bush during Election 2004. He doesn't support all of President Bush's agenda, but he does believe in his party's aparatus. He wants that aparatus to support him in 2008 and will not go quietly if it doesn't.
  • Bill Frist - Senator Frist wins the mantle of most electable conservative. He will be judged by his ability to make Senator Specter and other more liberal Republicans loyally back the GOP agenda between now and 2008.

Somewhat Probable -

  • Rudy Guliani - The 9/11 Factor works highly in Rudy's favor. However, he's held no elected office higher than mayor. Also, a lot of conservatives thinks he's too far to the left.
  • Arnold Schwarzenagger - He's banned from The Presidency, for now. He's working to change it and he'll call you a gurlymon if you try and stop him. I think he's too leftward leaning not to be terminated as a ticket head, but could make a good strategic Veep choice.
  • Bill Owens - Some consevatives like the man. No one else has heard of him.
  • Colin Powell - Getting too old, but a perenial talking point.
  • Haley Barbour - Interesting dark horse. He beat a tough challenge from Robert Musgrave to become governor of Mississippi. He also has worked for the GOP on a national level and knows where all the bodies are hidden. Hmmm....

Longshots -

  • Mitt Romney - The wants the job for some strange reason. He has won statewide office in Massachussettes where the natives believe the road to perdition is MacAdamized with dead Republicans. This will either help him or make the conservative base call him a sellout.
  • Alan Keyes/Pat Robertson/Gary Bauer - One of these three jerks will run. If the evangelist de jour does well, he can emulate Howard Dean. If he lands squarely on his can during a pancake breakfast, he's the GOP Dennis Kucinich.

McCain would probably want Colin Powell or Rudy Gulianni with Mitt Romney having an outside shot at joining this basically Rockefeller Republican ticket. Frist would go with Powell, Rudy Haley or Ahnold.

These are my premature speculations for Election 2008.

Update I: QandO reports that Gallup already has polls out on preferences for both Democratic and GOP Presidential candidates. I guess President Bush can get an early start on feeling like a lame duck...


As you may or may not already be aware, members of the Watcher's Council hold a vote every week on what they consider to be the most link-worthy pieces of writing around... per the Watcher's instructions, I am submitting one of my own posts for consideration in the upcoming nominations process.
Here is the most recent winning council post, here is the most recent winning non-council post, here is the list of results for the latest vote, and here is the initial posting of all the nominees that were voted on.

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