Knight Of The Mind

I'll do my best to present a philosophical and generally conservative look at current events and life, the universe and everything. Readers are invited to take all that's posted herein with a grain of salt. or if they prefer, a grain of salt, a slice of lime and a shot of tequila.

Name:
Location: Alexandria, Virginia, United States

Greetings and welcome. My name is Steve, I'm 35 years old and I work for the US Army as an Operations Research Analyst. Hence my blog title Knight Of The Mind.

Thursday, November 11, 2004

Premature Speculation - Dem Edition

Hyperbolic exageration aside, the Dems lost this last election, but did not get wiped out. They lost most of these races in the margins, by 3 to 5 points this time. The Senatorial races were mathematically inclined against the Democratic Party and this caused the results from 2004 to sting just a little bit more.

Now we'll fast forward to 2008 and speculate on what the Dems will do to get back in the power game. It won't be easy. In 2006, the mathematics of the Senatorial races will again favor the GOP. The senate could be 56 or 57 percent Republican by 2008.

Also, there will not have been another census yet, thus the House of Representatives will remain in pro-GOP gerrymander. Therefore, the likelihood of the Dems picking up either house of congress will come close to zero unless George W. Bush has a disasterous 2nd term.

So that brings us to the presdential race, which will probably be the only opportunity the Democrats have for a good election night in 2008. Speculation now centers on who the Dems will run and where that person will take the party. Here are a few of the possibilities, and what I think would happen if they ran.

Highly likely:

Hillary Rodham Clinton - I have a personnal theory that no one in the Democratic Party really wants Hillary! to win this nomination. At least no one that wants to win the 2008 race. She would meet with condemnation from every corner of the GOP coalition.

However, Hillary would also bring out everyone who cares at all about core Democratic Party issues. It would be Armageddon. It's also a highly likely scenario. I'd have to rate Hillary as the early leader for the Dem nomination.

John F. Kerry - A lot of people are counting him out as a discarded loser. A lot of people counted him out against Howard Dean about 10 months ago. He got within 3 points of being inaugurated and had a great time winning the big debate against George W. Bush. Never count Kerry out.

Al Gore - No, he hasn't gracefully gone away. After reading some of his speeches to MoveOn.Org, he hasn't even really conceded the 2000 election. He can do nothing positive for the Democratic Party and would lose Hawaii and almost all points East in a Presidential Race. This, however, doesn't make him stop and doesn't make an Al Gore candidacy impossible.

Could Happen.

Tom Daschele - He's got connections and lots and lots of time on his hands.

John Edwards - I think he lost respect for trying to jump to the White House after only one term. Only people named Clinton can do that and be taken seriously.

Howard Dean - He really could grow up a bit in the next four years. Would his fans adore him if he acted like a rational man?

Dark Horses

Barak Obama - It would be way too early for him to run. However, he does have the star power.

Gray Davis - Seriously? Yep, he's ambitious enough to ignore the fact that people detest him.

Evan Bayh - This would be a disaster. I like Evan Bayh enough that I'd actually have to consider voting for a Democrat. The Horror! Good thing the Dems would NEVER be smart enough to nominate this guy.

My prediction for a 2008 ticket: Clinton - Daschele is my most likely. Kerry - Obama or Kerry - Davis are, in my opinion, the next most probable combinations. In the unfortunate event that he were nominated, I'm quite sure Al Gore would select Howard Dean.

Update I - Sean Hackbarth is not so sure Hillary! has the nomination in the bag just yet.

"Reciprocals"

As you may or may not already be aware, members of the Watcher's Council hold a vote every week on what they consider to be the most link-worthy pieces of writing around... per the Watcher's instructions, I am submitting one of my own posts for consideration in the upcoming nominations process.
Here is the most recent winning council post, here is the most recent winning non-council post, here is the list of results for the latest vote, and here is the initial posting of all the nominees that were voted on.

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