Knight Of The Mind

I'll do my best to present a philosophical and generally conservative look at current events and life, the universe and everything. Readers are invited to take all that's posted herein with a grain of salt. or if they prefer, a grain of salt, a slice of lime and a shot of tequila.

Location: Alexandria, Virginia, United States

Greetings and welcome. My name is Steve, I'm 35 years old and I work for the US Army as an Operations Research Analyst. Hence my blog title Knight Of The Mind.

Monday, July 12, 2004

Liberal + Liberal = Almost No Bounce!

So far, Edwards has been a ho-hummer for Team Kerry. Not even Pravda On The Hudson, could apply ample lipstick to this particular pig. Edwards did not knock Bush out of the box and really brings nothing of substance to John Kerry's ticket this Fall. At least Edwards has finally made the big time.

In terms of the actual numbers, RealClear Politics offers us the following data:

In the six polls taken since Kerry announced his VP choice on Tuesday, Kerry/Edwards has moved ahead of Bush/Cheney by 5.4% in the head-to-head race. Compared to the average of the last 6 polls conducted prior to Kerry's announcement, that represents a net gain of 4.3%.

It's about the same in the three way race. In the five surveys last week that included Nader/Camejo in the mix, Kerry/Edwards is averaging a 2.2% lead over Bush/Cheney. Compare this to the last five polls leading up to Kerry's announcement and you see a net gain of only 3.6%.

So the Edwards/Kerry ticket heads to convention with a slight lead that should get slightly bigger. You may see an 8-10 point advantage once Kerry's festivities go away. Matthew Dowd's collosally misinformed prediction of Kerry + 15 seems to be nothing more than an effort to manage the expectations game.

In essence, Kerry had a shot last week to blow the doors off of Bush/Cheney. His dragster stalled. He gets another swing in late July. If Kerry doesn't score soon, he may very well punch himself out like Vladamir Klitschko. Bush could then haymaker him in the Fall debates and win once more by being 'misunderestimated."


As you may or may not already be aware, members of the Watcher's Council hold a vote every week on what they consider to be the most link-worthy pieces of writing around... per the Watcher's instructions, I am submitting one of my own posts for consideration in the upcoming nominations process.
Here is the most recent winning council post, here is the most recent winning non-council post, here is the list of results for the latest vote, and here is the initial posting of all the nominees that were voted on.

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